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Local Search to Reach $81 Billion by 2011???

We've all heard about how local search is the next hottest thing. But how hot is it. Well according to this ClickZ article, it might be worth $81 Billion by 2011. Essentially Safa Rashtchy, sr. research analyst, Internet media and marketing, managing director for Piper Jaffray:

[...] recently published a report called "The User Revolution," about the rise in what he's calling "communitainment" as a mix of communication and entertainment, especially among the younger generations of Internet users. He's also predicting $81 billion for global online ad spending by 2011.

Now, that's a big number, so most of us want to know just how accurate that is. Well, Froosh over at HipMojo has been good enough to summarize the most salient estimates of the future value of local search:

- 2010: $28 Billion in US (eMarketer)
- 2010: $32 Billion in US (Morgan Stanley)
- 2010: $60 Billion in US (PriceWaterhouse)
- 2011: $60 Billion Global (Jeffrey Philipps)
- 2011: $80 Billion Global (Piper Jaffray)
- 2010: $110 Billion in Asia (PriceWaterhouse)

So it seems that Mr. Jaffray's estimate is in the higher end of estimates. Interestingly enough, the lowest estimate was made by, of all sources, eMarketer. Of course, that is in the US only. Even more curious is that while PriceWaterHouse is pegging it to be worth $60 Billion in the US by 2010, according to Jeffrey Phillips it will be worth only that much globally a year later.

I'd love to hear (or read) some thoughts on which of these estimators sound more credible and why.

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Comments

Hey there,
Just a point of clarification, Safa Rashtchy's $81 Billion number I pointed out refered to overall global online ad spend, and not just local search ad spend.
Still, it's a BIG number, and he said he thinks it's conservative.

That point was actually noted in Froosh's list of different estimates, but I definitely should have made that distinction more clear in my post.

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