Google Has Bigger Problems Than Click Fraud
When all we can conclude about click fraud is that it is somewhere between 0.2% and 14.2%, you have to wonder just how much of a problem it really is. After all, amidst all the fear, uncertainty, and doubt, actual users are still clicking on PPC ads. As much as click fraud speculation might hurt adservers and affiliate marketers by driving down what advertisers are willing to pay per click, there's still a demand for PPC advertising. What would really threaten the industry is if users stopped clicking on the ads altogether. Indeed, even click frauders would be out of a job.
Of course, Google has a chance a to turn this around in their favor. If they play their cards right, and address this very openly, they can probably swing this negative thing in a positive direction that would (fret) only extend their monopolistic potential. In other words, they need to deal with it in a different way than they've deal with click fraud.
Well, it looks like Google has let through some malware get through the cracks in their AdWords system. As PC World reported the other day:
[...] if you ran a Google search for "BetterBusinessBureau" from April 10 through about 11am EST this morning, you'd have stood a one in three chance of seeing a top sponsored link with green link text that read www.bbb.org - just like the real search result. If you clicked that sponsored link, you'd even end up at the regular BBB site as per normal.
But before you got to the bbb.org site, you'd invisibly pass through a malicious site that would try to exploit an Internet Explorer browser hole.
The site you'd pass through would install keystroke logging malware on your PC that would be used to steal password and banking information. As Computerworld explains:
[...] the ploy involved sponsored links (the text ads that appear alongside search results on Google), a malicious intermediary and malware that steals online banking usernames and passwords.
Of course, this is not a clear cut situation, and as Techdirt notes, there are several ways to look at this:
On the good side, it could mean that traditional means of tricking people into visiting sites haven't been working as well lately, so scammers now need to spend some money to convince people to visit questionable sites. Others, however, might point out that it's equally likely that these types of scams have become so lucrative that it's actually quite worthwhile to invest a little money in getting more victims, and that the ROI on such things is likely to be quite high. Then again, there's a pretty good chance that the scammers aren't actually paying and are simply using stolen credit card info.
This is all fine, but it still begs the question that others (such as Search Engine Round Table are asking: is Google going to screen the URLs of those who purchase paid listings?
Just like there are many ways to look at this, there are also many ways for Google to deal with it. Just as they have hitherto been the biggest target of such malware scams, making it possible that users stop clicking on their ads, they can just as easily turn this around in their favor so that their ads because the few that users trust.
Right now Google has a tremendous opportunity. What they need to do is start talking about the issue not just openly, but obsessively. This will make it seem like much less of a deal than it is. But, of course, they also need to do something about it.
If they can screen out these malicious advertisers, and assure that their PPC ads are safe for users, then they'll avoid a market backlash against their bread and butter. More importantly, however, they'll damage those niche adservers that are taking away from their monopolistic intentions.
If anything is certain, it's that once a scam is out there, it isn't going away. That means that if such malware scammers can't exploit Google AdWords any longer, they'll turn to the smaller adservers who don't have the resources, technology, or willingness to police their networks. Consequently, a lot of the alternative PPC affiliate marketing programs out there will begin to suffer from FUD created in the wake of a Google fumble. Then, as users turn their back on ads that don't have a Google stamp on them, so will affiliate marketers.
Not only would such an approach help stump many of the smaller (re non-competitive) alternative to AdSense/AdWords, but it would make entry into the market nearly impossible. In fact, Google might even benefit from developing a flashy, Google seal of quality assurance to stick onto their PPC ads when it comes those served up on their publishers network.
Of course, this is not a scenario I'd enjoy seeing. For starters, SearchAnyway is in the business of offering alternative to Google AdWords/AdSense. Secondly, a number of my personal properties would suffer. I rely on other affiliate marketing programs to actually generate some revenue. Not only does Google AdSense offer a terrible rev-share program, but most users are loath to click on them. Mind you, that would all change if Google became the only trust server of PPC ads out there, but that would give them all the more incentive to lower what the publisher gets out of each click.
